Trans-Jordan Landfill capacity cliff ~2032–2033
The Trans-Jordan Landfill serves approximately 500,000 south-valley residents and reaches capacity approximately 2032–2033. There is no in-county replacement planned or feasible. On closure, disposal costs for south-valley communities are projected to increase three to four times — feedstock transferring to Bayview Landfill in Utah County via new transfer stations. Phase Initial COD at Q2 2028 provides an operational alternative four years before the cliff. Phase Expanded at 2,000 TPD is fully operational by 2031 — before Trans-Jordan closes. The engagement window is open now. It will not remain open indefinitely.
Salt Lake County and its seven southern-valley member cities route approximately 2,000 TPD of manufacturing feedstock to two active landfill systems — the Salt Lake Valley Landfill (SLVL) and Trans-Jordan — at a fully-weighted disposal cost of approximately $55/ton. That $40M annual spend generates $0 return. The Beneficiation Fee at $100/ton is above the current FWDC — the economic case for this engagement rests entirely on the Circular Royalty™, not on gross cost displacement.
From Year 2, the Circular Royalty™ at $120/ton (120% of Year 1 fee) returns more than was paid in the fee. At Phase Initial scale, the Year 2 royalty surplus is +$2.56M. At Phase Expanded (2,000 TPD), the Year 2 surplus exceeds $12.8M — and grows each year thereafter. Against the backdrop of a 3–4× disposal cost increase on Trans-Jordan closure, the royalty stream converts a mounting cost trajectory into a compounding income source.
The MCR process is anoxic, oxygen-free, and classified under manufacturing NAICS — not solid waste disposal codes. Feedstock's balance sheet character inverts from an open-ended disposal liability to an income-producing instrument. The CSA term is 30 years with perpetual continuation language.
Phase Expanded at 2,000 TPD reaches the full addressable ceiling across all seven member cities. The CSA scales from Phase Initial to Phase Expanded without renegotiating commercial terms.
Five structural facts for Salt Lake County
Current fully-weighted FWDC is ~$55/ton. On Trans-Jordan's closure, south-valley communities must route feedstock to Bayview Landfill in Utah County via new transfer stations — a step-change to approximately $165–$220/ton. There is no in-county replacement planned or approved. The Circular Royalty™ from Year 2 replaces a compounding cost trajectory with a compounding income stream.
The Beneficiation Fee ($100/ton) exceeds the current FWDC (~$55/ton) by approximately $45/ton. The gross cost displacement is negative in Year 1. But from Year 2, the Circular Royalty™ at $120/ton exceeds the $100/ton fee — delivering a +$2.56M surplus at Phase Initial before accounting for the avoided Trans-Jordan cost cliff. By Year 30, the annual royalty surplus at Phase Expanded exceeds $66M.
Phase Initial at 400 TPD achieves COD Q2 2028 — four years before the Trans-Jordan capacity cliff. Phase Expanded at 2,000 TPD is fully operational by Q2 2031. The county has a structural alternative fully deployed and royalty-positive before it faces a forced transition at punishing cost. The procurement window to achieve Phase Initial COD by Q2 2028 is open now.
The Salt Lake Valley Landfill — the county's other active disposal asset — has been identified as an Exogenesis™ Royalty candidate. Rather than managing an aging landfill toward its own eventual capacity or cost ceiling, the Exogenesis™ Royalty structure converts accumulated legacy material into a structured dual-stream payment alongside the primary CSA. Subject to Waste Characterization Study confirmation. Available under the CSA.
The seven southern-valley member cities collectively generate the 2,000 TPD addressable ceiling. A single CSA structure covering all member cities enables Phase Expanded deployment without city-by-city negotiation. Each city's stream is additive — Phase Initial can draw from the most immediately accessible member-city volumes while Phase Medium and Expanded incorporate the full ceiling.
Two paths for Salt Lake County
- Beneficiation Fee: $100/ton, 2.5%/yr escalator
- Circular Royalty™: 120% of Year 1 fee base, +1pp/yr
- Royalty commencement: Month 13 after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payment (rolling monthly)
- 30-year CSA term, perpetual continuation language
- Parent Performance Guarantee
- Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) required
- US GAAP / GASB accounting treatment
The Salt Lake Valley Landfill has been identified as a qualifying candidate for the Exogenesis™ Royalty — a structured dual-stream payment for legacy landfill material appended to the primary CSA. The SLVL represents both an active disposal asset and a growing legacy material base.
The Exogenesis™ Royalty converts accumulated legacy material into a structured income stream. Subject to Waste Characterization Study confirmation. Available under the CSA — does not alter primary CSA commercial terms.
Subject to Waste Characterization Study confirmationKey figures at a glance
Fee is above ~$55/ton FWDC
vs. $14.96M fee Year 2
+$12.8M at Phase Expanded
Returns $0 · no royalty
Employment across Salt Lake County
Phase Initial (400 TPD)
Phase Medium (1,000 TPD)
Phase Expanded (2,000 TPD)
Circular Royalty™ projections — 400 to 2,000 TPD
Fee and Circular Royalty™ shown independently per the Separate Transaction Principle. The economic case rests on the royalty, not gross cost displacement.
| Capacity | Annual TPY | Fee · Year 1 | Royalty™ · Year 2 | Royalty Surplus · Yr 2 | 30-Year Gross Royalty | FTE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400 TPD ← Phase Initial | 146,000 | $14.60M | $17.52M | +$2.56M | ~$760M EST | ~100 |
| 1,000 TPD · Phase Medium | 365,000 | $36.50M | $43.80M | +$6.40M | ~$1.9B EST | ~250 |
| 2,000 TPD · Phase Expanded | 730,000 | $73.00M | $87.60M | +$12.80M | ~$3.8B EST | ~500 |
Royalty™ Year 2 = 120% × Year 1 fee base. Royalty Surplus = Royalty Year 2 − Fee Year 2 (escalated 2.5%). Note: Fee ($100/ton) is above current FWDC (~$55/ton); gross displacement is negative in Year 1. The economic case rests on the royalty stream. At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis. 30-year royalty ESTIMATED.