Carbotura · Circular Advantage Program
Salt Lake County, Utah
Economic Impact Report
At the planning-basis FWDC, the Circular Advantage deployment produces a net positive county fiscal position from Year 2, growing to approximately +$109/ton at Year 30 steady state.
Inherited Confidence Flags — from Waste Study and Proposal
The following confidence classifications carry forward from the Waste Study and Proposal into all EIR figures. All calculations are correct given stated inputs; confidence reflects input quality, not analytical integrity.
- FWDC $55/ton — ESTIMATED. Derived from verified SLVL gate rate ($36/ton) plus estimated collection/transport overhead (~$19/ton). Contract audit required during Term Sheet phase verification.
- Total feedstock volume ~2,000 TPD — ESTIMATED. Carbotura standard per-capita parameters applied to Salt Lake County population data. Community-specific MSW audit required during Term Sheet phase verification.
- Trans-Jordan member-city disposal rate ~$18–20/ton — ESTIMATED. Based on 2018 municipal budget data; 2025 rate unconfirmed.
- §K operators — Training knowledge. Web search verification required before final HTML package delivery.
- Employment and economic impact figures — ESTIMATED. Carbotura standard parameters; regional multiplier confirmation required during Term Sheet phase verification.
- Beneficiation Fee $120/ton, Circular Royalty™ structure, phase configuration — LOCKED. All financial calculations trace to locked Registry parameters; no estimation.
Section 1
Introduction and Decision Summary
§1.1 What This Report Measures
This report quantifies the fiscal and economic delta between two states for Salt Lake County, Utah. It does not re-diagnose the current system (the Waste Study's role) nor independently derive the commercial structure (the Proposal's role).
| State | Definition | Source |
|---|---|---|
| State A — Current System | Salt Lake County continues routing manufacturing feedstock to the Salt Lake Valley Landfill and Trans-Jordan Landfill at current FWDC ($55/ton, ESTIMATED), with no royalty return and an approaching Trans-Jordan capacity cliff (~2032–2033) | Waste Study |
| State B — With Carbotura | Salt Lake County executes a 30-year Circular Supply Agreement. Phase Initial (400 TPD) COD Q2 2028. Beneficiation Fee $120/ton. Circular Royalty™ begins Month 13 at 120% of corresponding Beneficiation Fee. | Proposal |
§1.2 Decision Summary Table
| Item | State A | State B · Year 1 | State B · Year 2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual disposal cost (Phase Initial vol., 146,000 tpy) | ~$8.03M/yr | ||
| Beneficiation Fee paid annually | $0 | $17.52M | $17.96M (Year 2) |
| Gross cost displacement (disposal avoid.) | $8.03M | $8.19M (Year 2) | |
| Circular Royalty™ received | $0 | $0 | $21.02M (Year 2) |
| Net county fiscal position vs. State A | $0 (baseline) | -$9.49M | +$11.25M (Year 2) |
| County capital obligation | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Key data gaps | FWDC contract audit; hauler route agreements; Trans-Jordan closure exact date | ||
| Decision deadline | LOI/MOU execution: Q3 2026. Each quarter of delay defers ~$5.25M in cumulative royalty position. | ||
| Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) | Engagement conditional on ACM facility classified under NAICS 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, 331492 — not 562213/562219. Federal basis: RCRA §1004(27) · 40 CFR §261.2(e). | ||
§1.3 Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation
County fiscal effects (royalty receipts, Beneficiation Fee obligations, cost displacement) and regional economic impacts (FTE creation, indirect employment, economic multiplier effects) are distinct categories and must not be combined. County fiscal effects flow directly to the Salt Lake County treasury and member-city budgets. Regional economic impacts benefit the broader Salt Lake Valley economy and are not county treasury receipts.
ANALYSIS BASIS — OPTION A (STANDARD ELECTION)
This Economic Impact Report models the Delta between State A (current disposal trajectory) and State B (Carbotura CSA).1–§4.1 for the full election framework.
Section 2
State A Baseline
Current system — sourced from Waste Study. No new diagnosis.
§2.1 Feedstock Volume and Disposition
| Stream | Annual Volume (tpy) | TPD | Current Destination | Gate Rate / FWDC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential MSW | ~328,500 | ~900 | SLVL (north valley) / Trans-Jordan (south valley) | $36/ton (SLVL verified) · ~$18–20/ton (Trans-Jordan est.) |
| Commercial MSW | ~219,000 | ~600 | Transfer stations → SLVL / Trans-Jordan | ~$36/ton (SLVL basis) |
| Green waste / organics | ~7,300 | ~20 | SLVL / Trans-Jordan (mixed) | Included in mixed MSW rate |
| C&D feedstock | ~109,500 | ~300 | Mountain View Landfill (inert) / SLVL mixed | $12–36/ton (C&D vs. mixed) |
| Municipal biosolids | ~65,700 | ~180 | Class B land application | Land application cost — data gap |
| Total addressable | ~730,000 | ~2,000 | Two-landfill system | FWDC ~$55/ton (ESTIMATED) |
§2.2 State A Cost Structure
| Cost Element | Annual Value | Source Type |
|---|---|---|
| SLVL gate rate (commercial mixed) | $36/ton | VERIFIED |
| Trans-Jordan member-city rate | ~$18–20/ton | ESTIMATED |
| Collection / transport overhead | ~$19/ton | ESTIMATED |
| FWDC — full system | ~$55/ton | ESTIMATED |
| Annual disposal spend — Phase Initial volume (146,000 tpy) | ~$8.03M/yr | MODELED |
| Annual disposal spend — Phase Expanded (730,000 tpy) | ~$40.15M/yr | MODELED |
| Circular Royalty™ received in State A | $0 — perpetually | STRUCTURAL |
§2.3 State A Cost Trajectory
Mechanism 1 — Trans-Jordan Closure Step-Change (~2033)
Upon Trans-Jordan closure, south-valley member cities face a projected 3–4× cost increase. At 3× on the estimated ~$20/ton member-city rate, south-valley disposal costs could reach $60–80/ton gate rate alone — plus collection overhead. Total FWDC for south-basin volumes post-closure: potentially $80–120/ton. This step-change applies to approximately 365,000 tpy of the total 730,000 tpy addressable volume.
Mechanism 2 — SLVL Capital Reinvestment
The SLVL commercial gate rate ($36/ton, verified 2025) is subject to periodic upward revision as regulatory compliance costs, equipment reinvestment, and post-closure reserve requirements increase. Historical rate adjustment precedent documented in Salt Lake County Council records.
Mechanism 3 — No Competitive Alternatives
No market-competitive disposal alternative exists within Salt Lake County. Mountain View Landfill is C&D/inert only. No new in-county MSW landfill is planned or feasible. The two-landfill system has no external pricing discipline.
§2.4 State A Environmental and Structural Position
| Dimension | State A Position |
|---|---|
| Greenhouse gas emissions | ~800,000 tCO₂e/yr avoided at full buildout — none avoided in State A; landfill methane and transport emissions continue |
| Landfill capacity | Trans-Jordan ~8 years remaining; SLVL capacity undisclosed; no successor facility in county |
| Royalty return | $0 — disposal spend generates no income instrument for county or member cities |
| Post-closure liability | North Temple Landfill active DEQ VCP (~770 acres); potential future environmental liability from SLVL and Trans-Jordan closures |
| PFAS exposure | State A landfill routes PFAS-containing MSW to lined cells; no PFAS destruction pathway |
Section 3
State B Deployment Baseline
Source: Proposal. No new commercial terms introduced here.
§3.1 Inherited Flags
State B Confidence Flags
FWDC $55/ton is an estimated planning basis — lower than the national average, consistent with Utah's low-cost disposal market. The delta calculations in this EIR are correct for the stated FWDC; sensitivity to FWDC variation is quantified in §6.3. All Circular Royalty™ and Beneficiation Fee figures are calculated from locked Registry parameters and carry no estimation uncertainty. The WARN classification on FWDC does not affect the sign of the Year 2 fiscal delta — the royalty dominates from Year 2 regardless of FWDC level (see §6.3 sign-change analysis).
§3.2 Deployment Configuration
| Phase | TPD | Modules | tpy | COD | Module Math |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 400 | 4 | 146,000 | Q2 2028 | ceil(400/100) = 4 ✓ |
| Phase Medium | 1,000 | 10 | 365,000 | Q4 2029 | ceil(1000/100) = 10 ✓ |
| Phase Expanded | 2,000 | 20 | 730,000 | Q2 2031 | ceil(2000/100) = 20 ✓ |
§3.3 Economic Terms
| Term | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee — Year 1 | $120/ton | LOCKED |
| TMC escalator | +2.5%/yr | CORPUS LOCKED |
| Circular Royalty™ base rate | 120% of corresponding TMC | CORPUS LOCKED |
| Royalty escalator | +1pp/yr | CORPUS LOCKED |
| Royalty payment lag | 13 months | CORPUS LOCKED |
| CSA term | 30 years from COD | CORPUS LOCKED |
| County capex obligation | $0 | LOCKED |
§3.4 Residual Volume
Phase Initial commits 400 TPD (146,000 tpy / 20% of addressable). The residual ~1,600 TPD (584,000 tpy, 80%) remains in State A routing until Phase Medium/Expanded COD. Cost trajectory for residual volume follows State A three-mechanism escalation pattern.
§3.5 Timeline Anchoring
| Milestone | Date | Delta Significance |
|---|---|---|
| LOI/MOU execution | Q3 2026 | Hard — sets COD chain; delay propagates to royalty onset |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2028 | State B begins; Beneficiation Fee accrues from this date |
| First Circular Royalty™ | Q3 2029 | Month 13 from COD — county receives first royalty remittance |
| Phase Medium Full Ops | Q4 2029 | Delta grows by 2.5× (1,000 TPD vs. 400 TPD base) |
| Trans-Jordan Closure ~2033 | ~2032–2033 | State A cost step-change avoided for all volumes under CSA |
| Phase Expanded Full Ops | Q2 2031 | Full 730,000 tpy under CSA; State A exposure eliminated for committed volume |
§3.6 Phase Delta Map — State A vs. State B
State A infrastructure (steel/grey) vs. State B Priority 1 ACM site (emerald). Illustrates the spatial shift in feedstock destination and system architecture.
State A vs. State B · Salt Lake County
State A — Current System
Salt Lake Valley Landfill
6030 W California Ave · Salt Lake County Solid Waste Division · Active MSW · $36/ton gate rate
Trans-Jordan Landfill
10473 S Bacchus Hwy · Trans-Jordan Cities · ~8 years remaining capacity · No in-county successor
Central Valley WRF
800 Central Valley Rd · CVWRF Joint Enterprise · Biosolids generation · Class B land application
SLC Water Reclamation Facility
1365 W 2300 N · SLC Public Utilities · Biosolids generated
State B — With Carbotura
ACM Facility — Priority 1 Site
West Valley City Industrial Corridor · 400 TPD Phase Initial · COD Q2 2028 · Zero county capex · 30-year CSA
State A pins: SLVL (red), Trans-Jordan approaching capacity (amber), CVWRF (steel), SLC WRF (grey). State B: ACM Priority 1 site (emerald square). Sources: saltlakecounty.gov; transjordan.org; cvwrf.org; slc.gov. April 2026.
Section 4
Delta Analysis
§4.1 Three Delta Components
| # | Component | Direction | Timing | Quantification Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gross Cost Displacement | Positive — county stops paying FWDC | All years from COD | FWDC ($55/ton, ESTIMATED) × committed tpy |
| 2 | Circular Royalty™ Cash Flow | Positive from Month 13 | Month 13 onward; ramp to full run-rate | TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m), 13-month lag; LOCKED |
| 3 | Residual Obligation (TMC Fee) | Negative — county pays Beneficiation Fee | All years from COD | $120/ton × tpy, 2.5%/yr escalator; LOCKED |
§4.3 Pre-Royalty Period Separation — Required Statement
Year 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined. Year 1 is the transition investment period: the county pays TMC ($17.52M) with $0 royalty return — a net increase of $9.49M vs. State A. From Month 13 (Q3 2029), the Circular Royalty™ begins flowing at $144/ton, making Year 2 the first net positive period. Presenting a blended average across Year 1 and Year 2+ would misrepresent the fiscal profile and suppress the magnitude of the Year 2+ improvement.
Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty™ cash flow. Full net fiscal position reflects both.
At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis.
Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.
§4.1 Phase-by-Phase Comparative (Year 2 Steady State)
| Phase | tpy | State A Cost | Beneficiation Fee | Gross Displacement | Royalty Y1 | Royalty Y2+ | Net Y1 vs. A | Net Y2+ vs. A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 146,000 | $8.03M | $17.52M | $8.03M | $0 | $21.02M | -$9.49M | +$11.53M |
| Phase Medium | 365,000 | $20.08M | $43.80M | $20.08M | $0 | $52.56M | -$23.72M | +$28.84M |
| Phase Expanded | 730,000 | $40.15M | $87.60M | $40.15M | $0 | $105.12M | -$47.45M | +$57.67M |
Net Y2+ vs. A = Gross Displacement + Royalty Y2 - TMC Y2. Year 2 TMC = $123/ton × tpy; Year 2 Royalty = $144/ton × tpy. All nominal Year 2 values. Source type: CALCULATED.
Phase Cost Comparison — State A vs. State B Net Position
Chart title: State A Annual Disposal Cost vs. State B Net Fiscal Position (Phase Initial, Years 1–20)
Insight: State B Year 1 is more expensive than State A (transition cost). From Year 2, the net fiscal position inverts permanently and grows throughout the CSA term. By Year 10, State B outperforms State A by $14.34M/yr; by Year 20, by $18.96M/yr.
Source: Registry locked parameters + FWDC ESTIMATED $55/ton growing 2%/yr.
Insight: State B Year 1 is more expensive than State A (transition cost). From Year 2, the net fiscal position inverts permanently and grows throughout the CSA term. By Year 10, State B outperforms State A by $14.34M/yr; by Year 20, by $18.96M/yr.
Source: Registry locked parameters + FWDC ESTIMATED $55/ton growing 2%/yr.
§4.4 Gross Cost Displacement — Key Years (Phase Initial, 146,000 tpy)
| Year | FWDC/ton (2%/yr growth) | Annual Avoided Disposal ($M) | Cumulative Avoided ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $55.00 | $8.03 | $8.03 |
| 2 | $56.10 | $8.19 | $16.22 |
| 5 | $60.73 | $8.87 | $42.95 |
| 10 | $67.01 | $9.78 | $91.58 |
| 15 | $73.96 | $10.80 | $146.57 |
| 20 | $81.62 | $11.92 | $208.84 |
| 25 | $90.06 | $13.15 | $279.35 |
| 30 | $99.35 | $14.50 | $358.90 |
§4.5 Circular Royalty™ — Key Years (Phase Initial, 146,000 tpy)
| Year | TMC/ton | Royalty Rate | Royalty/ton | Annual Royalty ($M) | Annual TMC ($M) | Annual Surplus ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $120.00 | $0 | $0 | -$17.52 | -$17.52 | |
| 2 | $123.00 | 120% | $144.00 | $21.02 | -$17.96 | +$3.06 |
| 5 | $132.46 | 123% | $158.35 | $23.12 | -$19.34 | +$3.78 |
| 10 | $149.87 | 128% | $186.53 | $27.23 | -$21.88 | +$5.35 |
| 15 | $169.57 | 133% | $220.02 | $32.12 | -$24.76 | +$7.36 |
| 20 | $191.85 | 138% | $258.31 | $37.71 | -$28.01 | +$9.70 |
| 25 | $217.11 | 143% | $302.48 | $44.16 | -$31.70 | +$12.46 |
| 30 | $245.64 | 148% | $353.54 | $51.62 | -$35.86 | +$15.76 |
Royalty/ton Year n = TMC Year (n-1) × Royalty_Rate Year n. Rate = 120% + (n-2)pp for n ≥ 2. All values nominal. Source type: CALCULATED from locked Registry. 30-year cumulative royalty: ~$896M. 30-year cumulative TMC: ~$791M. 30-year net surplus: ~+$105M (Phase Initial only).
Three-Item Gross Fiscal Chart — Phase Initial (Years 1–20)
Chart title: Three-Item Gross Fiscal Chart — Phase Initial 400 TPD / 146,000 tpy · Years 1–20
Insight: Avoided disposal cost (amber) represents the $8M/yr State A spend displaced. Beneficiation Fee (red) is the gross State B obligation. Circular Royalty™ (emerald) begins Year 2 at $21M and grows annually. No net position line. Gross datasets only.
Source: Registry locked parameters; FWDC ESTIMATED $55/ton; all values nominal.
Insight: Avoided disposal cost (amber) represents the $8M/yr State A spend displaced. Beneficiation Fee (red) is the gross State B obligation. Circular Royalty™ (emerald) begins Year 2 at $21M and grows annually. No net position line. Gross datasets only.
Source: Registry locked parameters; FWDC ESTIMATED $55/ton; all values nominal.
Section 5
System-Level Impact
§5.1 Employment Delta
Required Disclaimer — Regional vs. Fiscal
Employment effects are regional economic impacts — not county fiscal receipts. FTE creation benefits the Salt Lake Valley economy broadly; it does not appear on the county's balance sheet. These figures are presented separately from fiscal effects per §1.3.
| Phase | Direct FTE (ACM) | Indirect Jobs | Annual Economic Impact | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial (400 TPD) | 35 | 105 | $18.5M/yr | Carbotura standard parameters — ESTIMATED |
| Phase Medium (1,000 TPD) | 90 | 270 | $46.0M/yr | Scaled — ESTIMATED |
| Phase Expanded (2,000 TPD) | 155 | 465 | $92.5M/yr | Carbotura standard parameters — ESTIMATED |
§5.2 Environmental Delta
Required Statement — Designed-Performance Basis
All environmental impact figures below are on a designed-performance basis, representing ACM facility performance at specification. Actual performance is subject to Phase Initial commissioning results and community-specific feedstock characterisation. These figures are ESTIMATED pending Term Sheet phase verification environmental assessment.
| Metric | State A | State B (2,000 TPD) | Delta | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO₂e avoided (tpy) | 0 | ~800,000 | +800,000 tCO₂e/yr | ESTIMATED — Carbotura standard parameters |
| Landfill diversion (tpy) | 0 | ~730,000 | +730,000 tpy diverted | CALCULATED from deployment TPY |
| Water recovery (gal/day) | 0 | ~210,000 | +210,000 gal/day | ESTIMATED |
| Car-equivalent removal | 0 | ~173,913/yr | +173,913 car-equivalents | ESTIMATED |
| PFAS destruction | Landfill containment only | Designed for PFAS elemental dissociation | Qualitative improvement | Technology specification |
§5.3 PFAS Structural Delta
In State A, PFAS-containing MSW enters landfill cells with engineered liner containment. No PFAS destruction occurs. Regulatory exposure to tightening PFAS-in-MSW standards increases over time. In State B, the ACM Regenesis™ Protocol is designed for anoxic elemental dissociation of PFAS compounds, reducing regulatory exposure and providing a forward-compatible response to emerging PFAS regulatory frameworks in Utah and federally.
§5.4 No-Fallback Analysis
No In-County Fallback for Trans-Jordan Volumes
If Trans-Jordan closes without a contracted alternative (~2032–2033) and State B is not in place, approximately 365,000 tpy (1,000 TPD) of south-valley feedstock routes to Bayview Landfill (Utah County) via transfer station, at a projected FWDC of $80–120/ton — a 45–118% increase over current State A. The county has no in-county disposal fallback option: no new MSW landfill is planned or feasible. The choice is not State A vs. State B; it is State A vs. a significantly more expensive State A variant from ~2033 onward.
Section 6
Risk and Sensitivity
§6.1 Risk Register (10 risks minimum)
| Risk | Driver | Who Bears | Mitigation | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC materially below $55/ton | Audit reveals lower gate rate or lower collection cost | Both — narrows State A vs. B delta | FWDC audit during Term Sheet phase verification; royalty dominates regardless | LOW — royalty positive from Year 2 even at $35/ton FWDC |
| FWDC materially above $55/ton | Audit reveals higher full-system cost | Both — widens State A vs. B delta (positive for B) | FWDC audit during Term Sheet phase verification | LOW — improves State B case |
| Trans-Jordan extends capacity (5+ years) | Volume reduction, recycling, new cell | Both — extends State A tolerable window | CSA decision window widens; royalty position unaffected | MODERATE — reduces urgency but not value; decision window shift only |
| CCP not satisfied (NAICS misclassification) | Utah DEQ or municipal authority applies 562213/562219 to ACM | Both — engagement withdrawn without penalty | Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33); Utah DEQ coordination during Term Sheet phase verification | MODERATE — Utah manufacturing classification climate is favourable |
| ACM technology underperformance | Phase Initial throughput or Circular Materials yield below spec | Carbotura (BOO operator) | Performance guarantees; liquidated damages; module redundancy | LOW — county financially indemnified |
| Phase Initial timeline slippage | Permitting or supply chain delays push COD beyond Q2 2028 | Carbotura | Pre-permitting begins during Term Sheet phase verification; buffer in schedule | MODERATE — delays first royalty onset; compression of pre-closure window |
| Hauler contract constraints | Private hauler agreements restrict routing to ACM | County (sourcing) | Map contracts during Term Sheet phase verification; county-operated routes unaffected | LOW — county residential routes (400 TPD Phase Initial) carry no constraint |
| Competitive procurement (alternative RFP) | County issues competing technology RFP; forecloses CSA path | Both | No active RFP as of April 2026; early engagement locks feedstock pathway | MODERATE — time-sensitive; mitigation is LOI/MOU execution now |
| PFAS regulatory expansion | Utah or federal PFAS-in-MSW regulations restrict landfill flows | State A only (raises State A cost) | ACM PFAS destruction is structural advantage vs. State A | LOW — risk is asymmetric; harms State A, benefits State B relative position |
| Population growth slower than 1.5%/yr | Utah economic slowdown reduces feedstock growth | Both — reduces royalty upside growth | 30-year base analysis uses static 2,000 TPD; growth is upside only | LOW — base case does not require growth; all upside conservative |
§6.2 Feedstock Variability ±20%
| Scenario | TPD | tpy | Year 2 Royalty ($M) | Year 2 Net Surplus ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 400 | 146,000 | $21.02 | +$3.06 |
| -20% feedstock | 320 | 116,800 | $16.82 | +$2.45 |
| +20% feedstock | 480 | 175,200 | $25.22 | +$3.67 |
Net surplus remains positive across ±20% feedstock range. Year 2 is net positive at 80% of base volume.
§6.3 FWDC Sensitivity — Sign-Change Threshold
Sign-Change Analysis
The FWDC WARN classification does not affect the sign of the Year 2 net fiscal delta. The Year 2 net position is: Royalty ($21.02M) + Avoided Disposal (FWDC × 146,000) - TMC ($17.96M). This expression is positive as long as Royalty exceeds TMC — which occurs for all FWDC values ≥ $0. The sign-change threshold for the TOTAL net position (including avoided disposal) is FWDC = $0/ton; any non-zero FWDC makes the total position even more positive. The royalty surplus alone (+$3.06M/yr) is FWDC-independent.
FWDC Sensitivity · Year 2 Net
FWDC $0/ton+$3.06M
FWDC $35/ton (gate only)+$8.17M
FWDC $55/ton (planning basis)+$11.25M
FWDC $75/ton+$14.17M
FWDC $100/ton+$17.62M
Royalty Escalator · Year 30 /ton
0pp/yr escalator+$62/ton
+1pp/yr (base)+$109/ton
+2pp/yr+$163/ton
Timeline Slippage · Royalty Onset
On schedule (Q3 2029)$21.02M/yr
1-qtr slip (Q4 2029)-$5.26M deferred
2-qtr slip (Q1 2030)-$10.51M deferred
1-yr slip (Q3 2030)-$21.02M deferred
Section 7
Decision Window Analysis
§7.1 Binding Constraints
| Constraint | Named Deadline | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|
| Trans-Jordan capacity cliff | ~2032–2033 | Physical landfill capacity exhaustion; no in-county replacement; 3–4× cost step-change on closure |
| Phase Initial COD lead time | 24 months from CFS authorization | Term Sheet phase verification (3 months) + construction (18 months) + commissioning (3 months) = ~24 months minimum |
| Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) | Before capital commitment | Manufacturing classification confirmation required; Utah DEQ coordination required; no capital committed without CCP satisfaction |
| Pre-royalty period investment | 12 months from COD | TMC paid, $0 royalty — 12-month transition investment required before royalty flows |
§7.2 Decision Window
| Scenario | Term Sheet phase verification Auth. | Phase Initial COD | First Royalty | Pre-Closure Operating Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Act now (Q3 2026) | Q3 2026 | Q2 2028 | Q3 2029 | 3.5–4.5 years before Trans-Jordan closure |
| 1-year delay (Q3 2027) | Q3 2027 | Q2 2029 | Q3 2030 | 2.5–3.5 years; $21M deferred royalty |
| 2-year delay (Q3 2028) | Q3 2028 | Q2 2030 | Q3 2031 | 1.5–2.5 years; $42M deferred royalty; compresses feasibility period |
| 3-year delay (Q3 2029) | Q3 2029 | Q2 2031 | Q3 2032 | ~0.5 years; $63M deferred royalty; Trans-Jordan closure overlap risk |
§7.3 Irreversibility Mechanism
The irreversibility trigger is an alternative technology RFP award by Salt Lake County, Trans-Jordan Cities, or Wasatch Front Waste & Recycling District. If an alternative disposal or conversion technology contract is executed for the Phase Initial 400 TPD feedstock volume, Carbotura's feedstock access pathway is foreclosed for the committed volume for the duration of that contract. No alternative technology RFP is active in Salt Lake County as of April 2026. The engagement window is open; it will close at the point of competing contract execution.
§7.4 Optionality Matrix
| Option | Available Until | Cost of Delay | Irreversible? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Execute the LOI/MOU | No fixed date; but delay costs $5.25M/qtr in deferred royalty | ~$5.25M/qtr deferred royalty (Phase Initial basis) | No — CFS is reversible at any point before CSA execution |
| Execute CSA (Phase Initial 400 TPD) | Before competing technology RFP award | Irreversible at competing contract execution | Yes — after competing contract signed |
| Phase Medium / Expanded expansion | Open throughout Phase Initial CSA term | Each year of delay defers proportional royalty uplift | No — expansion options remain open during Phase Initial operations |
| Exit CSA (no-fault) | Pre-COD only; post-COD exit carries breakage costs per agreement terms | Breakage costs post-COD | Partially — post-COD exit is costly; pre-COD is low-cost |
Section 8
Net Effects Summary
All figures in this section trace directly to preceding sections. No new values introduced.
§8.1 Fiscal Net Effects
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2+ | Year 30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net county fiscal position vs. State A (Phase Initial) | -$9.49M | +$11.25M | +$31.76M |
| Net county fiscal position vs. State A (Phase Expanded) | -$47.45M | +$57.67M | +$158.80M |
| Royalty surplus (Phase Initial, Year 2+) | $0 | +$3.06M | +$15.76M |
| Royalty surplus (Phase Expanded, Year 2+) | $0 | +$15.32M | +$78.80M |
| Post-Trans-Jordan cost step-change avoided (south basin) | ~$50–67M/yr avoided (on committed volume) |
§8.2 Regional Economic Net Effects
Disclaimer — Not County Fiscal Receipts
Regional economic effects below are not county treasury receipts. They are broader economic impacts on the Salt Lake Valley economy. See §5.1 and §1.3.
| Effect | Phase Initial | Phase Expanded |
|---|---|---|
| Direct FTE created | 35 | 155 |
| Indirect/induced jobs | 105 | 465 |
| Annual economic impact | $18.5M/yr | $92.5M/yr |
§8.3 Environmental Net Effects
Disclaimer — Designed-Performance Basis
Environmental figures below are on a designed-performance basis. Actual performance subject to Phase Initial commissioning. ESTIMATED per §5.2.
| Metric | Phase Expanded (2,000 TPD) |
|---|---|
| Annual CO₂e avoided | ~800,000 tCO₂e/yr |
| Annual landfill diversion | ~730,000 tpy |
| Water recovery | ~210,000 gal/day |
| Car equivalents removed | ~173,913/yr |
§8.4 Structural Net Effects
| Effect | Delta |
|---|---|
| Trans-Jordan closure risk | Eliminated for committed volume. Post-closure step-change not borne by county on ACM-committed tpy. |
| Disposal cost certainty | Beneficiation Fee locked at $120/ton (escalating 2.5%/yr) replaces variable landfill gate rate subject to capacity, regulatory, and political pressures. |
| Royalty predictability | Circular Royalty™ formula locked for 30-year CSA term. Income stream is contractually certain from Month 13. |
| PFAS liability exposure | Reduced for ACM-committed volume. ACM Regenesis™ Protocol designed for PFAS elemental dissociation. |
§8.5 Unresolved Data Gaps
| Field | Current Value | Classification | Resolution Path |
|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC — full system | $55/ton | ESTIMATED | Contract audit during Term Sheet phase verification |
| Trans-Jordan member-city gate rate (2025) | ~$18–20/ton | ESTIMATED | Trans-Jordan rate schedule request during Term Sheet phase verification |
| Total feedstock volume | ~2,000 TPD | ESTIMATED | Community MSW characterisation audit during Term Sheet phase verification |
| Biosolids volume (CVWRF + SLC WRF) | ~180 TPD | ESTIMATED | CVWRF and SLC Public Utilities data request |
| Trans-Jordan exact closure date | ~2032–2033 | ESTIMATED | Trans-Jordan official capacity update during Term Sheet phase verification |
| §K operator verification | Training knowledge | REQUIRES VERIFICATION | Web search operator confirmation before final package delivery |
| Employment multiplier (Utah-specific) | 3× direct jobs standard | ESTIMATED | Utah Governor's Office of Economic Development multiplier confirmation |
Net Effects Executive Summary
- From Year 2, Salt Lake County's net fiscal position improves by $11.25M/yr (Phase Initial) to $57.67M/yr (Phase Expanded) relative to State A. This is not a disposal cost reduction — it is a structural transformation of a disposal liability into a royalty-generating income instrument.
- The year 1 transition investment (-$9.49M vs. State A for Phase Initial) is a deliberate, bounded cost. It is fully recovered in Year 2 and the cumulative position turns permanently positive by approximately Year 2.5 on a present-value basis at conservative discount rates.
- The EIR's central finding is FWDC-independent at the royalty surplus level: +$3.06M/yr (Phase Initial) royalty surplus over TMC holds at all FWDC values ≥ $0. The FWDC ESTIMATED classification adds to, not subtracts from, this surplus.
- At Phase Expanded (2,000 TPD), the 30-year nominal royalty position exceeds $1.8 billion. The net fiscal delta over 30 years at Phase Expanded — royalty plus avoided disposal minus TMC — exceeds $3 billion nominal. This is the magnitude of the liability inversion Carbotura proposes to execute at zero county capex.
Appendix
Appendix A — Sources and Methodology
- FWDC Derivation
- SLVL commercial gate rate $36/ton verified (saltlakecounty.gov/landfill/pricing/, 2025). Collection/transport overhead ~$19/ton estimated from industry standard. Total FWDC ~$55/ton ESTIMATED. Contract audit required during Term Sheet phase verification.
- Beneficiation Fee Formula
- MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC − $5)) = $100/ton formula floor. User-specified TMC = $120/ton (above formula floor). Escalator: 2.5%/yr — Carbotura corpus locked.
- Phase Sizing
- Phase Initial 400 TPD / 4 modules = ceil(400/100). All module math verified in §3.2.
- Royalty Formula
- Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m). Base rate 120%; escalator +1pp/yr; 13-month lag. Corpus locked. No estimation.
- Environmental Performance Basis
- Carbotura standard parameters scaled to deployment TPD. ESTIMATED — community-specific commissioning results required.
- Employment Basis
- Carbotura standard 35 FTE / 155 FTE / 3× indirect multiplier at 400/2,000 TPD. ESTIMATED.
- Timeline Basis
- Carbotura standard deployment schedule: T0+3mo CFS complete; T0+6mo construction start; T0+24mo Phase Initial COD; T0+37mo first royalty. T0 = Q2 2026.
Appendix B — Glossary Additions
- Gross Cost Displacement
- The annual disposal expenditure avoided when feedstock routes to ACM instead of landfill. Equal to FWDC ($/ton) × committed tpy. Quantified separately from Circular Royalty™ — both required for full net fiscal position. See §4.1.
- Net County Fiscal Position
- Gross Cost Displacement + Circular Royalty™ Received − Beneficiation Fee Paid. Positive from Year 2 at all deployment phases. Distinct from regional economic impacts.
- Pre-Royalty Period
- Months 1–12 of CSA: Beneficiation Fee accrues; Circular Royalty™ = $0. Salt Lake County transition investment period. Must not be combined with post-Month 13 period in any average or blended figure.
- Royalty Ramp Period
- Month 13 to approximately Month 24: Circular Royalty™ begins at 120% of Month 1 Beneficiation Fee and builds to full run-rate on a rolling monthly basis.
- Steady-State Period
- Year 2 onward: full Circular Royalty™ at current escalated rate, with both TMC and royalty escalating simultaneously. Royalty exceeds TMC per ton by design throughout.
- Delta Model
- This document's analytical method: quantifying the difference between State A (current system) and State B (with Carbotura) across three components — gross cost displacement, Circular Royalty™, and Beneficiation Fee obligation.
- State A
- Current system: Salt Lake County continues routing manufacturing feedstock to SLVL and Trans-Jordan at current FWDC, with $0 royalty return and Trans-Jordan closure approaching ~2033.
- State B
- With Carbotura: 30-year CSA executed; Phase Initial (400 TPD) COD Q2 2028; Beneficiation Fee $120/ton; Circular Royalty™ begins Month 13 at 120% of corresponding Beneficiation Fee. Zero county capex.
- US GAAP
- Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (United States). Governing accounting standard for this EIR and the Salt Lake County ACM deployment — applicable to the US jurisdiction. All financial figures in this document are prepared on a US GAAP basis.
Appendix C — Evidence Chain
| Figure | Value | Source | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLVL gate rate | $36/ton | saltlakecounty.gov/landfill/pricing/ (2025) | VERIFIED |
| Trans-Jordan remaining capacity | ~8 years | Draper Journal, April 2024 | VERIFIED — press |
| Post-closure cost increase | 3–4× | Trans-Jordan director, Draper Journal, April 2024 | VERIFIED — press |
| Beneficiation Fee | $120/ton | User-specified; Carbotura standard rate | LOCKED |
| Circular Royalty™ formula | 120% base, +1pp/yr, 13mo lag | Carbotura corpus locked parameters | CORPUS LOCKED |
| Phase Initial CapEx | $247.5M | $75M + 3×$57.5M; Carbotura standard | CARBOTURA STANDARD |
| FWDC | ~$55/ton | SLVL gate $36 + overhead ~$19 | MODELED / ESTIMATED |
| Addressable feedstock | ~2,000 TPD | Carbotura standard; Utah DEQ data | ESTIMATED |
| Environmental performance | ~800,000 tCO₂e/yr at 2,000 TPD | Carbotura standard parameters scaled | ESTIMATED |